Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is poised for a notable uptick in the first quarter of 2024, as indicated by industry analysts. Despite potential slowdowns in March, the overall trajectory suggests a quarter-on-quarter growth of around 5%.
Historical Pre-COVID Seasonality vs. Current Projections:
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Macau’s gaming revenue typically exhibited seasonal patterns, with March traditionally experiencing a slight downturn compared to January and February. However, analysts from JP Morgan highlight that the expected 5% quarterly growth in Q1 2024 would surpass historical pre-COVID seasonality. This deviation underscores the resilience and recovery momentum within Macau’s gaming industry.
February’s Post-Pandemic High Run-Rate:
February 2024 witnessed a significant milestone with Macau’s GGR reaching MOP$18.5 billion (US$2.29 billion), marking a post-pandemic high run-rate of MOP$637 million (US$129 million). This notable surge reflects the ongoing recovery efforts within the sector and sets a promising tone for the rest of the quarter.
March Forecasts:
Deutsche Bank’s Carlo Santarelli projects a slight decline in daily run-rate for March, estimating US$2.42 billion in GGR, representing a 2.2% decrease from February. Despite this decline, Santarelli’s forecast significantly outperforms historical trends, with only a 7.7% decline compared to the typical downturn for this time of year. Moreover, March’s GGR forecast stands at an impressive 74.8% of March 2019’s GGR, showcasing substantial progress in the sector’s recovery journey.
Year-to-Date Performance and Growth Outlook:
Year-to-date GGR figures indicate a promising trend, tracking 7% above the previous quarter. This positive momentum reinforces the expectation of a 5% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q1 2024, surpassing historical seasonality norms. JP Morgan’s analysts emphasize that these projections align with reasonable expectations for the sector, considering broader macroeconomic factors and consumption trends.
Market Sentiment and Analyst Perspectives:
Both JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank express confidence in the resilience and growth potential of Macau’s gaming industry. Despite potential headwinds from macroeconomic factors, analysts remain optimistic about the sector’s performance, citing strong recovery indicators and favorable forecasts.
Macau’s gaming industry is poised for notable growth in the first quarter of 2024, with projections indicating a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase in gross gaming revenue. Historical patterns, post-pandemic recovery trends, and expert forecasts collectively signal a positive trajectory for the sector. As Macau continues its journey towards full recovery, sustained momentum and strategic adaptations will be key drivers of future growth and resilience in the gaming market.