In recent discussions within the gaming industry, the Thai government’s imminent approval of a casino legalization study has sparked concerns about its potential impact on Japan’s Integrated Resort (IR) development plans. Experts are pointing to the competitive advantage Thailand could gain, particularly in attracting Southeast Asian and South Chinese visitors, and the favorable terms it offers to operators and investors compared to Japan’s more stringent regulations.
Potential Threat to Japan’s IR Ambitions
Joji Kokuryo, Managing Director of Bay City Ventures in Japan, warns that Thailand’s accelerated timeline in legalizing casinos could significantly divert attention and investment away from Japan’s IR projects. Kokuryo emphasized that Thailand’s proposed casino legislation offers far more attractive conditions for operators, such as longer initial license durations (20 years versus Japan’s 10 years), lower gaming tax rates (17% versus Japan’s 30%), and flexible resort size and investment options tailored to different markets.
The attractiveness of Thailand’s framework poses a direct challenge to Japan, which has been historically slow in advancing its casino initiatives. This could potentially hinder Japan’s ability to attract investors and operators for future IR bidding rounds, especially with emerging markets like the UAE also competing for attention.
Concerns for Osaka’s IR Development
The spotlight is particularly intense on Osaka, the sole location approved by Japan’s central government for an IR development. Kokuryo stressed the urgency for local officials to address environmental concerns and infrastructure challenges at the designated Yumeshima IR site to prevent further delays. The success of the MGM-Orix joint venture, slated to open in 2030, hinges on resolving these issues promptly, especially to deter the possibility of the venture exercising its exit option, valid until September 2026.
Differing Perspectives on Thailand’s Impact
Despite these concerns, not all industry experts believe that Thailand’s potential early entry into the casino market poses an existential threat to Japan’s IR aspirations. Samuel Yin Shao Yang of Maybank Investment Bank highlighted that the success of IRs ultimately depends on product quality and location rather than mere timing. Drawing a comparison with Singapore’s experience, Yin pointed out that Marina Bay Sands, despite opening later than Resorts World Sentosa, has dominated market share due to its superior offerings and strategic positioning.
Balancing Threats and Opportunities
The anticipated legalization of casino gaming in Thailand has raised significant challenges for Japan’s IR industry, particularly in attracting investors and operators. The allure of more favorable terms in Thailand’s proposed framework, coupled with its potential to capture key visitor demographics, underscores the need for Japan to address regulatory and infrastructural hurdles efficiently.
Osaka’s IR development, as the flagship project in Japan, must navigate these challenges diligently to uphold investor confidence and project viability. While Thailand’s accelerated timeline is a cause for concern, the long-term success of Japan’s IR ventures will ultimately hinge on their ability to deliver exceptional experiences and capitalize on unique market advantages.