In the first half of July 2024, Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) has shown notable fluctuations, reflecting evolving market dynamics influenced by seasonal demand and sporting events.
Initial July GGR Performance
During the initial phase of July, Macau reported an estimated GGR of MOP$8.30 billion (US$1.03 billion). This marked a substantial increase from earlier in the month, with daily GGR rates rising by approximately 15% to MOP$635 million (US$79.0 million) over the past seven days. Earlier in the month, the run-rate started at MOP$550 million (US$68.4 million), showcasing a clear uptick in revenue momentum.
Factors Driving Revenue Growth
JP Morgan analysts attribute this growth to the onset of summer holiday demand, a traditionally lucrative period for Macau’s gaming industry. Moreover, the conclusion of the Euro 2024 football championships is anticipated to further bolster gaming volumes in the coming weeks, aligning with the peak summer holiday season.
Comparison with Pre-COVID Levels
The investment bank maintains estimates that mass GGR is operating at 105% to 110% of pre-COVID levels, underscoring a robust recovery in this segment. However, VIP gaming remains subdued, hovering around the low-to-mid 20% range compared to pre-pandemic figures.
Outlook for July GGR
Despite the promising uptrend observed in mid-July, JP Morgan slightly adjusts its July GGR forecast to approximately MOP$18.5 billion. This revision is marginally below earlier market expectations of exceeding MOP$19 billion, primarily due to a slower start to the month. Analysts caution that weekly trends in GGR can be volatile, emphasizing the need for nuanced interpretation of short-term fluctuations.
The first half of July has showcased Macau’s resilience and adaptability amidst evolving market conditions. With summer holidays underway and major sporting events influencing consumer behavior, the trajectory of Macau’s gaming revenue in July 2024 presents both challenges and opportunities for stakeholders in the region’s vibrant gaming industry.