Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd. forecasts a 17% surge in Macau’s daily casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) during China’s Golden Week holiday compared to the rest of October. The designated holiday period, from September 29 to October 6, includes the Mid-Autumn Festival and China’s National Day.
Golden Week Revenue Surge:
Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd. predicts that Macau’s daily GGR during China’s Golden Week holiday could be approximately 17% higher than the non-holiday days in October. They estimate about MOP750 million (US$93.1 million) in daily GGR during this holiday season.
Recovery and Earnings Growth:
Despite the impact of typhoons and weak seasonality in parts of September, the second half of the month has shown a strong recovery, with robust October hotel bookings. Morgan Stanley anticipates a more than 10% quarter-on-quarter growth in fourth-quarter 2023 EBITDA, attributed to industry revenue recovery and operating leverage.
Golden Week Tourism Boost:
The Chinese State Council designates September 29 to October 6 as the popular autumn or October Golden Week, aligning with the Mid-Autumn Festival and China’s National Day. Macau’s tourism authority expects a daily average of “over 100,000” visitor arrivals during this period.
Industry Challenges and Adjusted Estimates:
Morgan Stanley recently adjusted its 2023 EBITDA estimates for Macau’s casino operators, considering market challenges. Despite the market recovery concerns, the institution expects Macau’s gaming industry EBITDA to reach nearly US$6.55 billion this year.
Visitor Arrival Trends:
Macau recorded a notable increase in visitor arrivals in August, with over 3.22 million visitors, a 16.7% month-on-month increase. Mainland China contributed significantly, accounting for 72.0% of August’s total arrivals.
By analyzing Macau’s expected GGR surge during the Golden Week and considering factors like tourism influx and market adjustments, the region seems poised for an uptick in the gaming industry, marking a positive trend in its recovery.