The balance of power in the global online gambling industry is starting to tilt away from Europe, with new forecasts suggesting that regulated markets across North and Latin America could match or surpass Europe’s online gross gaming revenue by 2028. The projection, released by Vixio Regulatory Intelligence, points to a shift driven by rapid expansion in Brazil, sustained growth in Canada and continued legalisation across the United States.
A region accelerating faster than Europe can keep up
Vixio’s analysts estimate that regulated online gambling across The Americas will generate at least US$32.5 billion by 2026, more than double the US$15.6 billion recorded in 2022. Their longer-term forecast shows combined markets in the U.S., Canada and Latin America reaching US$56.3 billion by 2028, placing the region neck and neck with Europe or potentially ahead depending on currency fluctuations.
Growth is moving at a pace Europe is unlikely to match. The regulated EU online gambling market is projected to reach €37.3 billion by 2026, up from just under €30 billion in 2022. The gap between the two regions, once substantial, is now closing rapidly.
Vixio Chief Analyst James Kilsby says the trajectory marks a structural shift in global market influence. Before 2018, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned PASPA, the industry was largely centred in Europe. Since then, a wave of regulatory frameworks in U.S. states, Ontario and now Brazil has redrawn the global map.
Europe’s slowdown creates a widening opportunity for the Americas
Europe remains the world’s largest regulated online gambling region, but its growth has slowed as countries adopt tighter compliance rules. Markets such as the U.K., Germany and the Netherlands are navigating reforms intended to improve player safety but which analysts say could reduce channelization and limit spending on licensed platforms.
German operators, in particular, argue that high friction and lower limits have driven players toward offshore sites, where regulators cannot enforce consumer protections. Recent industry estimates place German channelization for online slots as low as 20 to 40 percent.
Against that backdrop, Vixio expects European GGR growth to remain steady but modest. Meanwhile, The Americas are expanding across a far broader regulatory frontier.
Brazil, Ontario and the U.S. are all expanding rapidly
Brazil’s newly regulated market is the most closely watched development. Federal licensing is opening the door to major global operators, and Vixio considers the country to be one of the biggest markets in the coming years. Ontario, which has quickly established itself as North America’s most open online gambling jurisdiction, continues to attract operators, bolstered by its independent iGaming Ontario agency.
In the U.S., fragmentation remains a challenge. No new states have legalised full iGaming since Rhode Island in 2023, and sports betting expansion has slowed, almost to a halt. Even so, the U.S. still accounts for more than 70 percent of projected GGR across The Americas. Loopholes used by prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have circumvented current regulation, adding even more pressure on lawmakers to modernise outdated rules.
A race shaped by regulation and timing
With a compound annual growth rate above 20 percent through 2028, The Americas are emerging as the industry’s most aggressive competitors. Europe’s mature markets remain stable but increasingly constrained by compliance-heavy frameworks.
For operators, the global landscape is becoming clear. The opportunities are shifting westward, and the companies that adapt early will be best positioned when the two regions meet at the same revenue level within the next three years.
References:
- Vixio Regulatory Intelligence: Latin America Outlook 2025 – https://www.vixio.com/research/latin-america-outlook-2025
- Vixio Regulatory Intelligence: Global Online Gambling Forecasts – https://www.vixio.com/
- European Gaming and Betting Association: Market Data and EU Regulatory Trends – https://www.egba.eu/
- U.S. Supreme Court: PASPA Ruling (Murphy v. NCAA, 2018) – https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-476_dbfi.pdf
