In the first 21 days of July 2024, Macau’s gaming industry has showcased robust performance. According to investment bank JP Morgan, the gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached approximately MOP$12.75 billion (US$1.58 billion). This indicates a daily run-rate of MOP$607 million (US$75.4 million). The performance has been notably steady, with recent figures showing a flat week-on-week run-rate of MOP$635 million (US$78.9 million). This marks an increase from the MOP$550 million (US$68.3 million) daily revenue observed at the beginning of the month.
Current Revenue Trends
For the first 21 days of July, Macau’s gross gaming revenue stands at an impressive MOP$12.75 billion (US$1.58 billion). The daily run-rate is calculated at MOP$607 million (US$75.4 million). Recent data highlights a consistent weekly performance, with a stable run-rate of MOP$635 million (US$78.9 million) over the past week. This figure represents a substantial increase from the early July figures, reflecting a positive trend in gaming revenue.
Comparison with Historical Data
The current revenue trends are particularly notable when compared to pre-COVID levels. Mass GGR is projected to be around 110% of pre-pandemic levels, indicating a significant recovery. JP Morgan forecasts July 2024’s GGR to reach MOP$18.5 billion (US$2.30 billion), which represents 76% of the GGR recorded in July 2019. This forecast aligns with the recovery trend observed in the first half of 2024 and shows an improvement from the 74% recovery rate in June.
Impact of Seasonal Demand
The observed revenue figures reflect a moderate yet promising demand driven by summer holidays. Despite concerns about potential regulatory crackdowns on illegal money exchange operations, the gaming industry in Macau has demonstrated resilience. The stability in revenue indicates a steady influx of visitors and gamblers, supported by seasonal trends.
Analysts’ View on Revenue Trends
JP Morgan analysts, DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li, have noted that the revenue figures reflect “pretty decent (albeit not fantastic) demand” from summer holidays. Their analysis suggests that despite the concerns about a potential crackdown on illegal money exchange activities, the demand for gaming remains stable and robust. This stability is essential for understanding the broader recovery trends in Macau’s gaming sector.
Forecast Adjustments
The forecasted GGR for July 2024 of MOP$18.5 billion (US$2.30 billion) reflects a slight improvement from previous projections. The recovery rate of 76% of July 2019 levels is a positive sign, indicating that the gaming industry is not only recovering but also showing incremental growth. This forecast is in line with the recovery trends observed in the first half of 2024.
Macau’s gaming industry has demonstrated strong performance in July 2024, with revenue figures indicating both recovery and growth. The stable daily run-rate and improved forecasted GGR highlight a resilient sector, supported by seasonal demand and ongoing recovery efforts. Despite challenges, such as potential regulatory actions, the industry’s ability to maintain steady revenue levels bodes well for its continued recovery and growth in the coming months.