Ukraine has ordered internet providers to block access to prediction market platform Polymarket, escalating pressure on services that allow trading on geopolitical and military outcomes. The move targets unlicensed gambling activity and follows mounting concern over contracts tied to the war with Russia.
The restriction comes as Polymarket faces growing scrutiny worldwide for listing markets linked to active conflicts. Lawmakers and regulators in multiple jurisdictions have warned that such contracts raise legal, ethical, and national security concerns. The Ukrainian action adds momentum to a broader pushback against prediction markets as they expand into sensitive political and military territory.
Regulator orders nationwide access block
The National Commission for the Regulation of Electronic Communications has directed internet service providers to restrict access to Polymarket under Resolution No. 695. The order classifies the platform’s event contracts as unlicensed gambling under Ukrainian law and makes the block mandatory across the country.
The decision followed a review by PlayCity, the state body responsible for monitoring gambling and betting activity. Its assessment concluded that Polymarket was operating without the required local license and failed to meet consumer protection standards. The platform’s domain has since been added to Ukraine’s public registry of restricted sites.
Telecom operators are now required to technically limit access for users in Ukraine. Regulators have reserved the right to carry out inspections of providers that fail to comply.
War-related markets drove regulatory action
Ukrainian authorities focused heavily on Polymarket contracts tied to the war. The platform has hosted markets on battlefield developments, territorial control, and the potential occupation of cities in eastern regions.
Trading volume connected to Ukraine-related outcomes surged during 2025. By year-end, completed and active markets linked to the conflict had generated hundreds of millions of dollars in wagers. Officials raised concerns that such contracts could incentivize harmful behavior and exploit sensitive military information.
Regulators also objected to the use of data from Ukrainian monitoring projects without permission, which was linked to wagers on territorial changes. The combination of volume, subject matter, and data usage intensified pressure for enforcement.
Prediction markets face global pushback
Ukraine is not alone in moving against Polymarket. Regulators across Europe and Asia have restricted access to the platform over unlicensed activity and concerns that outcome-based contracts fall under national gambling laws.
Several countries have pointed to election and armed conflict markets as particularly problematic. Authorities argue that allowing users to trade on war scenarios and political events creates risks that traditional gambling frameworks were designed to prevent.
In the United States, state regulators have also taken action. Tennessee recently ordered Polymarket and rival platforms to halt sports-related contracts, cancel open positions, and return customer funds. The state warned that noncompliance could lead to criminal referrals and civil penalties.
Lawmakers and industry raise alarm over war contracts
Political pressure has intensified as prediction markets expand into active conflicts. US lawmakers have warned that contracts tied to war could be manipulated or exploited by foreign actors. Industry groups have echoed those concerns, noting that similar offerings would not be permitted under state or tribal gambling law.
Some competitors have publicly stated they avoid war-related markets altogether due to the incentives they could create. Others have said existing rules prohibit contracts linked to terrorism, assassination, or armed conflict. The debate has sharpened as platforms seek to position themselves closer to mainstream financial markets.
Polymarket’s expansion tests regulatory boundaries
Polymarket has grown rapidly in recent years and is preparing for a regulated US launch after acquiring a licensed exchange. While military and geopolitical contracts account for a minority of total volume, they have contributed to recent growth as global tensions rise.
The company has also attracted interest from traditional finance, highlighting how prediction markets are moving beyond niche crypto communities. That shift has increased visibility and regulatory attention.
Ukraine’s decision underscores the fragmented landscape facing prediction platforms that operate across borders without local licenses. As governments work to define whether these services fall under gambling law or financial regulation, platforms listing war-related contracts are likely to remain under intense scrutiny.
