Kalshi has launched in Brazil through a partnership with XP International, giving some Clear Corretora customers access to event contracts tied to real-world outcomes. The rollout is Kalshi’s first move outside the United States and begins with contracts linked to financial and economic events, not sports.
The launch matters because Kalshi is entering Brazil through a brokerage channel rather than through the country’s licensed betting system. That creates a clear split between federally authorized fixed-odds betting operators and a new form of event-based trading, at a time when Brazil is still working out how prediction markets should be treated.
Clear clients with international accounts are the first users in Brazil
Access is not open to every Clear customer. It is currently available to Clear clients who also have an international investment account with XP International, which is the offshore arm used to offer global investment products.
XP is presenting prediction markets as part of a wider investment toolkit, not as a gambling product. In its own description, the company says the contracts can be used to help clients express a view on an upcoming event or hedge against a possible outcome inside a broader portfolio.
Kalshi’s first contracts in Brazil are tied to financial and economic events. In simple terms, these are markets where users trade on whether something will happen in the economy or financial system, rather than betting on a football match or an awards show.
Brazil’s fixed-odds betting rules do not clearly cover prediction markets
Brazil’s betting rules were written for fixed-odds wagering and online gaming, not for event contracts offered through a brokerage account. Since January 1, 2025, only companies authorized by the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting have been allowed to offer fixed-odds betting nationally, and legal operators must work inside a federal structure built specifically for that market.
Kalshi’s model does not sit inside that SPA licensing system. That does not automatically settle whether the product is lawful or unlawful under Brazilian rules, but it does separate Kalshi from betting operators that had to meet local authorization, compliance and operating requirements.
B3 is building a local event contracts market under securities supervision
Brazil’s own market infrastructure is already moving in a similar direction. B3 has been developing an event contracts product under CVM and BSM supervision, with yes-no style prediction products tied to market rates, currencies, crypto and other stock markets.
That means Brazil is not just debating prediction markets in theory anymore. Kalshi has already reached the market through XP, while B3 is building a local version under securities oversight. The next question is how Brazilian authorities decide to classify and supervise this category as it starts to move into live trading.
