The NFL has asked prediction market operators to stop offering contracts tied to events that can be manipulated, known in advance, or distorted by insider information. In letters sent Sunday to platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, the league said it wants those companies to stay away from markets such as announcer comments, celebrity attendance, draft outcomes, and other contracts it views as too vulnerable to abuse.
The letters show the league has moved past simply watching the sector. The NFL is now trying to draw lines around the kinds of markets it can live with as prediction platforms keep pushing deeper into sports.
The league is drawing the line at insider-driven and single-play markets
According to ESPN’s reporting, the NFL flagged four types of contracts. The list includes events that one person can swing on their own, outcomes that may already be known to insiders, markets tied to officiating, and subjects the league sees as unacceptable, including player injuries and fan safety.
Jeff Miller, the NFL’s executive vice president overseeing policy issues, told ESPN the league is trying to stay away from wagers where somebody may already know the answer before the public does. The NFL also said it wants to shield players, coaches, and officials from accusations that could follow when gambling and prediction markets move too close to on-field decisions.
The NFL’s concern goes beyond the same bets sportsbooks already avoid
Some of the league’s concerns mirror limits long seen in state-regulated sports betting. Others reach further. ESPN reported that the NFL also objected to contracts on what broadcasters say during games and which celebrities show up, two categories that prediction markets leaned on heavily around the Super Bowl.
Those markets were not small side products. ESPN reported last month that more than $47 million had been traded this season on NFL announcer mention markets, while Super Bowl celebrity attendance markets drew more than $39 million. That helps explain why the league is stepping in now. These contracts have gone from novelty bets to a real part of the prediction market business.
The letters land as Washington shapes the rules for the sector
The CFTC opened a formal rulemaking process on prediction markets on March 12, asking for public comment on whether new regulations are needed for event contracts. That gives the NFL a window to push its case while the federal framework is still being written.
Miller told ESPN the league has been in talks with the CFTC for months. CFTC chair Michael Selig also said leagues are well placed to identify manipulation risks and that the agency will give weight to those views. The NFL is not asking for a blanket shutdown. It is trying to make sure the first set of guardrails leaves some contracts out of bounds.
