Industry and legal experts have urged European regulators to move faster on prediction markets as trading volumes grow and platforms push further into sports, politics and current events.
The warning came during NEXT Summit Valletta 2026. Europe needs clearer rules on licensing, taxation and consumer protection before prediction markets become harder to control.
Growth raises licensing questions
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts linked to future events. These can include election results, sports outcomes, economic data, entertainment events and other public questions.
That wide product range makes regulation difficult. Some markets look like gambling, while others can appear closer to financial trading or digital asset products.
European regulators have mostly handled prediction markets through national gambling rules so far. That has created different outcomes across countries, with some regulators blocking platforms and others still reviewing how the products should be classified.
Spain has already acted
Spain recently blocked access to Polymarket and Kalshi while it investigates whether the platforms operated without required gambling licences. The Spanish action showed how quickly regulators can move when platforms reach local users without approval.
Other European markets have also taken a cautious approach to prediction platforms. The main concerns include age checks, responsible gambling controls, market abuse, advertising standards and tax treatment.
The issue becomes more sensitive when prediction markets offer sports contracts. Those products can look similar to sports betting, especially when users are trading on match results or player performance.
Operators want clearer routes
For licensed gambling operators, prediction markets create both a threat and a possible product opportunity. Platforms can attract users with event-based trading while avoiding some gambling licence requirements in certain markets.
Clearer rules would help operators understand whether they can offer prediction-style products under gambling licences, financial rules or a separate framework. It would also help regulators decide which authority should oversee different contract types.
The lack of clarity is also affecting investment. Buyers and suppliers are cautious because legal classification can change the value of a prediction market business.
Malta reviews prediction market rules
Malta is reviewing how prediction markets could fit into its gambling and financial services rules. The country remains a major base for Europe-facing online gaming companies.
A clearer European approach could help separate regulated prediction products from unlicensed gambling. It could also give regulators stronger tools to handle offshore platforms that target local players without approval.
