The Dutch gambling regulator has ordered Polymarket to stop offering its prediction markets in the Netherlands, expanding its enforcement campaign beyond traditional offshore casino sites.
Kansspelautoriteit said the platform is available to Dutch consumers without a license and issued an order backed by penalties. The regulator is targeting Adventure One QSS, the entity it identified as operating the Polymarket brand in the Dutch market.
The move brings prediction markets into the Netherlands’ broader push to tighten online gambling controls, as the government and regulator increase pressure on unlicensed activity.
Regulator sets €420,000 weekly penalty with an €840,000 cap
KSA warned that Polymarket faces a penalty of €420,000 per week if it does not halt its activity, up to a maximum of €840,000. The regulator said it had previously contacted the operator about the offer being accessible in the Netherlands, but saw no visible changes.
KSA indicated the penalty order does not rule out further financial sanctions. It said a turnover-linked fine could follow later if needed, signaling a pathway from a coercive measure to a larger enforcement outcome.
The regulator framed the case as a straightforward licensing issue. In its view, anyone offering this type of product to Dutch consumers must hold Dutch authorization.
Elections markets put prediction products on the enforcement radar
KSA pointed to Polymarket’s recent visibility in the Netherlands, including markets tied to Dutch elections. Polymarket has argued that prediction markets are not gambling, but KSA said it reached the opposite conclusion under Dutch law.
KSA also flagged social-risk concerns tied to political prediction products, including the possibility that such markets can influence public behavior. That framing suggests the regulator is treating the issue as more than a technical licensing breach.
By naming prediction markets explicitly, KSA is signaling that newer formats will be treated as part of the same illegal-offer problem as unlicensed online casino platforms.
Coalition priorities push a tougher stance on illegal sites
The enforcement step aligns with the government’s stated goal of a tougher approach to illegal online gambling. KSA described a zero-tolerance posture as a core policy objective under the new coalition agenda, and positioned this action as part of that direction.
The Netherlands has already been in a tightening cycle, with policymakers moving toward stricter limits on what operators can do, how they market, and how they manage consumer risk.
Bringing prediction markets into that framework reflects a broader regulatory view that new labels do not change the underlying product risk and licensing requirements.
Licensed sector warns of unintended consequences from ad restrictions
The crackdown is unfolding alongside proposals that would further restrict online gambling advertising and strengthen duty-of-care obligations. Policymakers are also exploring steps that could narrow the number of online licenses over time.
The licensed industry has backed stronger player protection and tougher action against the illegal market, but it has raised concerns about visibility. VNLOK has argued that a regulated model depends on legal operators being identifiable to consumers, and that an advertising ban could push attention toward unlicensed sites.
That tension sits at the center of Dutch gambling policy right now. Regulators want sharper enforcement. Licensed operators want enforcement paired with a framework that still steers consumers toward the legal offer.
The future for prediction markets in the Netherlands
KSA’s action against Polymarket is a clear signal that prediction markets will be treated as illegal gambling if they are accessible in the Netherlands without authorization. The outcome will be closely watched by other platforms offering event-based contracts, as Dutch regulators test how far enforcement can reach into newer betting-adjacent products.
