Financial technology leader Tradeweb has entered into partnership with Kalshi as it aims to introduce prediction markets to more institutional access.
The deal, which has also seen Tradeweb take a minority stake in Kalshi, signals a growing convergence between traditional institutional trading infrastructure and event-driven markets that allow investors to trade on the probability of real-world outcomes.
The value of the partnership has not been disclosed.
Trading profession increasingly utilizing prediction markets, claims Tradweb CEO
The exploding sector is playing an increasingly important role in helping established Wall Street institutions execute their roles, according to Billy Hult, Tradeweb CEO.
In a statement, Hult said: “Prediction markets are increasingly becoming a key part of the trading landscape, and have the potential to become an indicator for institutions to dynamically assess macro risk and allocate capital more effectively.
Tradeweb Markets, founded in 1998 and based in New York City, operates one of the leading electronic marketplaces for fixed-income securities. The company provides trading networks that connect broker-dealers, institutional investors and retail clients.
While Tradeweb supports a range of asset classes, most of its business centers on U.S. and European government bonds, mortgage-backed securities, interest-rate swaps, and corporate bonds in the United States and abroad. The firm also generates revenue from selling fixed-income trading and pricing data, primarily through an agreement with Refinitiv’s Eikon platform.
What’s in it for both companies?
The partnership is expected to roll out in stages, starting with data integration. Kalshi’s real-time event probabilities, such as the likelihood of interest rate changes or key economic release, will be incorporated into Tradeweb’s rates and credit trading platforms. That would allow institutional investors to view event-based signals alongside bond yields, credit spreads and other core market data.
Over time, the companies plan to develop analytics tools that combine Kalshi’s event probabilities with Tradeweb’s pricing and liquidity data. According to observers, the goal is to help asset managers and hedge funds better forecast market scenarios and manage macroeconomic risk. By embedding prediction market signals directly into trading workflows, Tradeweb aims to make those insights part of everyday portfolio decision-making.
Tradeweb could eventually serve as a front-end portal for institutions to trade event contracts directly, with Kalshi providing the underlying exchange infrastructure. That would bring regulated prediction markets more firmly into mainstream institutional finance and potentially expand their use as hedging tools tied to policy decisions, inflation data and other economic outcomes.
For Tradeweb, the benefits go beyond its minority investment in Kalshi. The partnership differentiates its platform in the competitive electronic bond trading market, deepens client engagement and positions the company to capture growth if event-based contracts become a larger part of the derivatives landscape. For Kalshi, it is yet another string to its bow in what is proving to be a whirlwind start to 2026.
Deal comes as Kalshi gets nod in Fed study
Kalshi’s stock continues to climb outside of the market after researchers in a new Federal Reserve paper pointed to its prediction market data as a useful source of insight. The study, titled Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets, found its markets may outperform traditional derivatives and survey forecasts on key economic data.
It is a massive credibility boon for Kalshi, while also dealing a blow to state regulators, gambling industry groups and other critics who contend that such platforms amount to little more than speculative betting.
The Fed’s Anthony M. Diercks, Northwestern’s Jared Dean Katz and Jonathan Wright of the National Bureau of Economic Research said in a joint statement: “Our study highlights the promise of prediction markets as a new benchmark for measuring expectations and informing monetary policy decisions.”
However, not everyone is convinced. Researchers at Europe’s Centre for Economic Policy Research believe they’ve uncovered evidence of “favorite–longshot bias”, a well-known phenomenon in betting markets where traders often overprice unlikely outcomes and underprice strong favorites.
They add: “Low-price contracts win far less often than required to break even, while high-price contracts win more often and yield small positive returns.”
Attitudes changing quickly
As prediction markets edge closer to the financial mainstream, the Tradeweb–Kalshi tie-up underscores how quickly institutional attitudes are shifting.
What was once viewed as a niche corner of speculative trading is increasingly being framed as a tool for risk assessment and macro forecasting. Whether event contracts ultimately become a staple of portfolio management or remain a complementary signal will depend on performance, regulation and market adoption.
For now, the partnership reflects a broader recalibration on Wall Street: probabilities are becoming products, and the line between traditional finance and event-driven markets is steadily blurring.
