Despite mounting pressure on the prediction market sector from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle in the senate and congress, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has reaffirmed its support for the sector with a massive donation.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) said it has added $600 million to its investment in prediction market platform Polymarket, bringing its total commitment to nearly $2 billion. The move deepens Polymarket’s ties to a major global market operator as rival Kalshi raises more than $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation and generates an estimated $1.5 billion in annual revenue.
ICE doubles down on Polymarket investment
The additional funding will mean ICE has met its $2 billion obligations as part of a deal struck back in October 2025, which was part of an equity capital fundraising by Polymarket.
At the time, Jeffrey C. Sprecher, ICE Chair and Chief Executive Officer said: ““Our investment blends ICE, with a forward-thinking, revolutionary company pioneering change within the Decentralized Finance space.
“Shayne Coplan has assembled a team at Polymarket to create a user-driven company relentlessly focused on product, building usage and distribution. There are opportunities across markets which ICE together with Polymarket can uniquely serve and we are excited about where this investment can take us.”
Following that investment, Polymarket’s valuation soared to over $9 billion in January 2026. According to recent reports from the Wall Street Journal, the company is aiming to double its valuation by the end of the year.
Funding comes as pressure intensifies on prediction market sector
The fresh capital injection comes at a time of growing political scrutiny over prediction markets, with lawmakers in Washington advancing multiple proposals aimed at tightening oversight of the fast-expanding industry. Critics argue such platforms risk enabling insider trading and undermining public trust in government institutions.
Representative Seth Moulton has been among the most vocal opponents, this week describing prediction markets as “a playground for corrupt insiders” and announcing a personal ban on trading them. He is also backing legislation that would prohibit government officials and staff from participating in markets tied to political or policy outcomes where privileged information could be exploited.
Momentum has accelerated in Congress, where senators including Jeff Merkley and Elizabeth Warren have introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act. The proposal seeks to impose sweeping restrictions on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, amid concerns that betting on sensitive events like legislation or military action could distort incentives and erode democratic norms.
The legislative push has broadened further in 2026, with several additional bills targeting insider trading risks and the scope of contracts offered on these platforms. Measures under consideration range from banning certain political and sports-related markets to restricting participation by public officials and their families.
Against this backdrop, ICE’s expanded backing of Polymarket underscores a widening divide between institutional investment enthusiasm and mounting regulatory pressure, as the sector faces an uncertain path forward.
Last summer, Polymarket acquired Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-licensed derivatives exchange (QCX, LLC) and clearinghouse (QC Clearing LLC) (collectively “QCEX“) for $112 million with a view to ward off legal challenges from the government.
Israeli soldier charged with betting on Iran strikes with Polymarket
Meanwhile, an Israeli air force major has been charged with using classified information to place bets on air strikes against Iran, according to an indictment filed in Tel Aviv. Prosecutors say the officer passed details of a planned June operation to a civilian accomplice, enabling wagers on the timing of the attack.
The pair allegedly made more than $162,000 through bets placed on the site, and both are accused of sharing profits and converting some winnings into cryptocurrency, with further bets tied to a later Yemen strike.
Both men face charges including security offences, bribery and obstruction of justice. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) described the case as a “severe ethical failure” but said operational security was not compromised.
The case comes amid growing scrutiny of prediction markets, where large wagers have coincided with sensitive military developments.Recent bets on conflicts involving the Persian country and Venezuela have raised concerns about possible insider knowledge.
Authorities warn that advance knowledge of military actions could endanger personnel, particularly in operations launched by surprise air strikes. Investigations into betting linked to geopolitical events are ongoing, as regulators weigh tighter oversight of such platforms.
As scrutiny intensifies and new legislation advances in Washington, the future of prediction markets remains uncertain despite continued institutional backing. Investors have signaled confidence in the sector’s growth, but lawmakers are sounding the alarm bells that unchecked expansion could pose risks to market integrity and public trust. With billions of dollars at stake and competing visions for the sector’s future, the trajectory of platforms like Polymarket is likely to hinge on how regulators and investors navigate the months ahead.
