The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) is asking the federal government to intervene and halt prediction markets on college sports. A letter sent by the body’s president, Charlie Baker, requesting the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to take action and preserve the integrity of its sports and the safety of its athletes.
Kalshi and Polymarket, the two leaders in the space, allow bettors to take a trade position on the outcome of a match, otherwise known as a sports event contract. Critics argue it’s tantamount to sports betting without the oversight and regulation.
Safeguards needed before prediction markets are safe, Baker says
In a long letter outlining his organisation’s concerns, Baker put forward areas to address. He wrote: “I implore you to suspend collegiate sport prediction markets until a more robust system with appropriate safeguards is in place.
“Since 2018, when the Supreme Court overturned the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act, the NCAA has closely monitored and responded to the proliferation of legal sports betting in America. In sport prediction markets, there are many critical safeguards missing to protect college sport competitions and their stakeholders.”
He calls for the implementation of age restrictions, advertising rules, robust integrity monitoring, national governing body involvement, prop market caps, anti-harassment measures, and harm reduction resources as areas to bring up to standard.
He also writes how the NCAA is willing to work more closely with the CFTC to implement more stringent protections that exist for legal sportsbooks. The letter came to light after a speech by Baker at the 2026 NCAA Convention, which is running from January 13 until January 16 at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center in National Harbor, Maryland.
Kalshi condemned for opening Transfer Portal market
In his speech at the convention, Baker reiterated his view that sports events contracts and sports betting are one of the same: “So-called prediction markets are offering what anyone can see is unregulated betting on college games.”
He also made reference to Kalshi’s recent decision to self-certify markets on whether college athletes will enter the transfer portal, a move that was strongly criticized by the NCAA at the time.
“One operator, Kalshi, made plans to start taking bets on the Transfer Portal. That’s until we called them out, and they backed down for now. Just as we need Congress to stabilize eligibility, we need federal regulators to stabilize this market. The answer cannot be the status quo. We need one set of fair, transparent standards.”
The company denied it had any immediate plans to list any Transfer Portal markets on its site, telling ESPN last month: “We certify markets all the time that we do not end up listing.”
Prediction markets facing increased scrutiny
The public appeal to the CFTC by the NCAA comes at a time of maximum pressure and headwinds facing prediction markets. Kalshi was issued cease-and-desist letters in Tennessee earlier this month by the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (SWC), though a U.S. federal judge has since temporarily blocked state regulators from stopping the practice in the state.
Arizona, Illinois, Montana, Maryland, Nevada, and Ohio are other states to actively resist or effectively ban prediction market operations, while Connecticut, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, and New York are also participating in legal or administrative action against firms.
However, proponents believe prediction market users trade event contracts among themselves, so the resulting implied probabilities are driven by participants’ beliefs and information rather than a bookmaker’s profit margin.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan told CBS late last year: “Unlike a betting site where you make a bet against the house, here you own a share, and as a result, it creates information that’s really useful for people.”
NCAA still reeling from betting scandals
The public sensitivity from Baker could be rooted in recent match-fixing scandals that rocked the NCAA and other professional sports organisations, like the National Basketball Association (NBA) and Major League Baseball (MLB).
On January 15, federal prosecutors charged 20 individuals, including 15 current or former NCAA Division I men’s basketball players, in an alleged point-shaving and game-fixing scheme across at least 29 college games. U.S. Attorney David Metcalf described it as an “international criminal conspiracy” representing a “significant corruption of the integrity of sports,” adding others, including unnamed players, may be involved but were not charged.
That federal case followed a series of NCAA investigations in 2025 that led to lifetime bans for players who participated in gambling-related game manipulation or betting against their own teams. According to the governing body, they “uncovered violations by six student-athletes who competed in men’s basketball at New Orleans, Mississippi Valley and Arizona State.”
The cases appear to have reinforced the NCAA’s long-held view that college athletes remain vulnerable to gambling-related influence, particularly as betting markets expand in scope and accessibility. For Baker, the recent scandals provide a cautionary backdrop to the rise of sports event contracts, strengthening the argument that any new wagering format tied to collegiate competition must be subject to tighter controls.
