A U.S. Army Special Forces soldier has been charged after prosecutors said he used classified information about the operation that led to Nicolás Maduro’s capture to place profitable bets on Polymarket. The Justice Department unsealed an indictment on April 23 charging Gannon Ken Van Dyke with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and an unlawful monetary transaction. Prosecutors said he made more than $400,000 from the trades.
The case is one of the clearest examples yet of U.S. authorities treating prediction-market trading like any other market abuse case when confidential government information is involved. Federal officials said the fact that the bets were placed on an event-contract platform did not change the basic rule: classified information cannot be used for personal profit.
Prosecutors say he traded on information from inside the mission
According to the indictment, Van Dyke was involved in planning and executing “Operation Absolute Resolve,” the U.S. military operation to capture Maduro, from around December 8, 2025 through at least January 6, 2026. The Justice Department said he created a Polymarket account on December 26, funded it, and placed about 13 “yes” bets between December 27 and January 2 on outcomes tied to U.S. forces entering Venezuela, Maduro being removed from power, and related events. In total, prosecutors said he staked about $33,034 while in possession of classified nonpublic information.
The operation reached its public conclusion in the predawn hours of January 3, when Maduro and his wife were apprehended in Caracas. After the President publicly announced the mission, several of the relevant Polymarket contracts resolved in Van Dyke’s favor, according to prosecutors. The government said he then withdrew most of the proceeds and later tried to have his Polymarket account deleted.
Regulators say the case sets an early marker for prediction markets
The CFTC filed a parallel civil action the same day. It said Van Dyke bought more than 436,000 “yes” shares in the “Maduro Out by January 31, 2026?” contract and generated more than $404,000 in profits. The agency described the matter as its first insider-trading case involving event contracts.
That gives the case weight beyond one defendant. Reuters reported that prosecutors also view it as the Justice Department’s first insider-trading filing tied to a prediction market. In other words, this is not just a criminal case about one soldier. It is an early warning about how U.S. authorities intend to police misuse of sensitive information in event-contract markets as those platforms come under heavier scrutiny.
