An investigation by data analytics firm Bubblemaps into trades placed on Polymarket found nine accounts raked in more than $2.4 million in trades at a 98% win rate with speculative trades on the conflict in Iran.
The figures, which were revealed in a 60 Minutes segment on prediction markets, showcases what experts are calling the most egregious examples of insider trading from the very heart of the White House.
“Most insane pattern ever”, says analyst
The anonymous accounts placed successful bets tied to key developments in the geopolitical sphere with Polymarket, including the timing of initial U.S. strikes on Iran, the reported removal of Iran’s supreme leader and the announcement of a ceasefire.
According to the research, the accounts posted a 98% win rate across more than 80 bets, despite many wagers being made when the odds were considered long shots.
Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman, who first shared the findings with “60 Minutes”, was disbelieving of what he and his team found.
He told the programme: “This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far. Luck alone cannot explain those numbers.”
Rob Schwartz, a partner at the law firm Morgan Lewis, spent 13 years at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the agency responsible for policing fraud and insider trading, added: “This is a new kind of insider trading.”
Traders are able to remain anonymous on Polymarket, despite every element of the trades being transparent. Polymarket records all trades on a public blockchain, allowing anyone to view transaction histories, wallet activity and market outcomes in real time. Because the data is immutable and publicly accessible, independent analysts can trace patterns, monitor large bets and investigate suspicious trading activity.
Last month, Polymarket confirmed it was seeking up to $400 million in new funding at a valuation of as much as $15 billion, according to a report by The Information.
Polymarket says insider trading “not welcome” on platform
In a statement provided to 60 Minutes, Polymarket said: “”Polymarket has built the most comprehensive market integrity infrastructure in the prediction market industry, combining strict insider trading rules, AI-powered surveillance, and blockchain forensics into a unified system.
“When our systems identify suspicious activity, we act, including through referrals to law enforcement and cooperation with investigations,” and “insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified.”
Back in March, the company updated its rules to prohibit trades based on “stolen confidential information” or illegal tips in the face of growing scrutiny over whether some users use closely held information to gain an advantage. The company also said traders cannot place bets on events if they hold “a position of authority or influence” that could affect the outcome. The rules apply to both Polymarket’s U.S. exchange and offshore operations.
Announcing the new rules, Polymarket said it used a “multi-layered monitoring system” and works with surveillance and technology specialists to identify suspicious trading activity.
Neal Kumar, chief legal officer of Polymarket, said in a statement at the time. “Markets thrive on clarity. These rule enhancements make our expectations abundantly clear for every participant across both platforms and highlight the compliance infrastructure we have already built.”
The latest findings from Bubblemaps research and its spot on the prime time show that is 60 Minutes is likely to pour further scrutiny on the platform.
Polymarket ignores India ban
Meanwhile, Polymarket and competitor Kalshi are both ignoring the ban on operating in India, it has emerged. Both companies are still accessible to users in India despite government efforts to block prediction market and online betting platforms.
In an April 25 notice, India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology said internet users were continuing to access “illegal and blocked” platforms, including Polymarket, in violation of domestic restrictions. The ministry directed the warning at virtual private network providers, saying they could face legal action for helping users bypass the bans.
The advisory came days before a new nationwide law targeting online gambling took effect on May 1. A spokesperson for Polymarket said the company was “committed to complying with applicable laws and regulations across all jurisdictions in which it operates. We maintain geoblocking measures to restrict access in jurisdictions where our services are not permitted, and we continuously evaluate and update those measures.”
Gambling in India remains a popular pastime for many of its citizens, but its conservative government remains wary of legalized betting. A May 7 IPL matchup between the Lucknow Super Giants and Royal Challengers Bengaluru generated $27.7 million in trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket.
