A new poll conducted by NBC News Decision Desk shines a light on the prevailing attitudes of the American public towards prediction markets, with just 30% of the general population having not heard of the financial instrument.
Other takeaways from the poll reveal only a small percentage (3%) of citizens use prediction markets as a trading tool, while there was a split on the general opinion of how to regulate the sector moving forward.
Only 15% of poll recipients believe prediction markets should be made illegal
The poll was conducted from March 30 to April 13, 2026, and surveyed 32,433 adults nationwide, including 3,009 ages 18 to 29. According to the authors, the margin of error is 1.8 percentage points, while the poll was conducted using SurveyMonkey software.
With fewer than one sixth of the American public advocating for the prohibition of prediction markets, lobbyists in the sector will hope the poll offers some food for thought for lawmakers aiming to stymie the practice. At the time of writing, there are at least a dozen state efforts and several federal bills that are at least partially aimed at restricting or banning prediction markets.
It also found 24% of respondents believe the prediction markets should be regulated like online sports betting, while 30% believe it should be treated like financial investing or trading. Just 18% believe an entirely new framework of regulations should be built.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), under Chairman Michael Selig, has recently signaled closer oversight of prediction markets through a new staff advisory outlining how exchanges should list and manage event contracts. The guidance emphasizes compliance with existing rules but highlights unique risks, indicating current regulations may not fully address the space.
The advisory, alongside a related rulemaking notice, suggests the agency is weighing whether new, tailored regulations are needed for prediction markets. By soliciting public comment, the CFTC looks to be taking an initial step toward potentially formalizing a distinct regulatory framework for these products.
Criticism continues on lack of regulation and the issue of conflicting interests
Meanwhile, lawmakers have been referencing a recent market on Polymarket as an example of the risks unregulated prediction markets can pose to its personnel.
After their plane was downed over Iran, an injured U.S. airman, identified by the call sign Dude 44 Bravo, evaded Iranian forces and took shelter in mountainous terrain while awaiting rescue, as a large-scale U.S. mission was underway.
During the incident, users on the prediction platform Polymarket placed bets on the timing of his rescue, prompting criticism from American politician and Marine Corps combat veteran Seth Moulton, who called the market “disgusting”. The platform removed the market within hours, citing integrity standards, and the officer was rescued overnight April 4–5. No bets were paid out. Responding to Moulton’s post on X, Polymarket said: “It should not have been posted, and we are investigating how this slipped through our internal safeguards,”
In an interview with the Military Times, Matthew Motta, an associate professor at Boston University’s School of Public Health pointed out that foreign adversaries or bad actors can take advantage of conflicting interests.
He said: “Folks in the military may see movement on a prediction market as intelligence. And if they do, then that information becomes rife for manipulation, because what can happen is that untraceable actors, perhaps actors with nefarious interests, can place money on an outcome that would be convenient for them.”
While platforms continue to argue they enforce internal safeguards, incidents like this have reinforced skepticism among some policymakers about whether voluntary controls are sufficient.
Utah politician confident on Senate action
Elsewhere, a new U.S. Senate bill backed by Utah Republican Sen. John Curtis targets prediction markets in an effort to redefine its legal status. The proposal, co-sponsored by Democrats Adam Schiff of California and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, would ban contracts tied to sports and casino-style games. “This is an issue that’s just kind of coming into consciousness for people,” Curtis said.
A survey by The Siena Research Institute and St. Bonaventure University found 27% of recipientshave accounts on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Curtis said the bill targets only part of the issue, adding, “We’re narrowing in on a slice of it with this bill.”
The effort comes as states like Utah move to tighten restrictions. Despite a longstanding gambling ban, prediction market platforms have operated in gray areas. Utah lawmakers passed legislation this year clarifying that proposition-style bets fall under gambling rules, closing what officials viewed as a loophole.
Curtis said additional federal action is likely as concern grows in Congress over expanding betting activity. “What you’re going to see from the Senate is not a short list of bills dealing with these markets,” he said. “It’s very clear to me and my colleagues that this is important, that we jump on quickly.”
