Recent research from a joint study in the UK has poured water on the claims that gambling reforms would have a mammoth impact on the annual reduction in industry gross gambling yield of up to £812 million.
The study, jointly compiled by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and the University of Glasgow, examined the broader economic impact of gambling reforms proposed in the UK government’s 2023 white paper, which were designed to curb gross gambling yield, particularly in the online betting sector.
The white paper projected the measures could reduce annual industry revenue by between £329 million and £812 million.
Three methodologies considered in study
Researchers modeled the economic effects of the UK’s proposed gambling reforms using the white paper’s highest projected revenue loss estimate of £812 million.
The study combined surveys of more than 1,300 regular gamblers, a spending-choice experiment involving 804 participants and economic modeling based on 2022 UK industry data to assess how consumers might redirect money previously spent on gambling. Researchers said the analysis did not account for potential long-term benefits tied to reduced gambling harm, including improvements in health, productivity and wellbeing.
Katherine Simpson, lead author of the study, said: “We looked at how people who gamble say they would adjust their spending if these reforms were introduced, and then we modelled what that means for the wider economy,
“What we find is that most of the money doesn’t disappear, it’s redirected elsewhere, so the overall economic impact is relatively limited.”
Study also reveals gambling behaviors in UK
The study also examined gambling patterns among several demographics, finding younger and employed participants were more heavily represented in the spending-choice experiment and showed higher rates of problem gambling than the broader survey sample. Researchers said, however, that spending reallocation patterns remained broadly consistent regardless of gambling severity.
Data from UK charity GamCare showed nearly 2,000 people sought financial guidance for gambling-related issues in 2025, underscoring concerns about the social impact of betting harm, which was why the 2023 white paper was ordered.
Researchers also found limited appetite for illegal gambling markets. About 73% of online gamblers surveyed said they would not redirect money toward unlicensed operators if regulations tightened, while only 8.5% consistently selected unlicensed gambling options during experimental exercises.
The findings come as the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) warned illegal gambling activity has become more difficult to monitor amid rising VPN use in Britain. Data from Ofcom and analytics firm Similarweb showed VPN use increased sharply beginning in July 2025 before stabilizing at levels roughly 40% above pre-July figures.
Adrian Pabst, deputy director of the NIESR, said the analysis showed stricter gambling regulation would likely have only a limited effect on the UK economy, while potentially encouraging consumers to save more or spend money in other sectors.
He said: “There is no necessary trade-off between enhanced regulation and greater economic growth. Our work shows that the new gambling regulations will have a very small negative impact on the UK economy and that there are potential benefits in terms of people who gamble regularly saving more or redirecting their consumption to other sectors.
“Industry fears about a massive hit to economic activity are overstated and also ignore the wider social benefits of the regulatory changes.”
UKGC CEO Andrew Rhodes leaves role
Andrew Rhodes has officially left his role as chief executive of the UKGC after nearly five years overseeing some of the most significant reforms in Britain’s gambling industry. Rhodes, who joined the regulator in 2021 following the collapse of Football Index and the resignation of former chief executive Neil McArthur, helped steer the commission through a period of intense political and public scrutiny.
He oversaw proposals requiring financial risk checks for higher-spending customers despite fierce opposition from bookmakers, horse racing groups and betting advocates, arguing the system would be proportionate, while he also focused on reducing gambling-related harm.
Rhodes also managed sweeping changes to online gambling products, including the introduction of stake limits on online slot games, restrictions on autoplay features and other design mechanics viewed as encouraging excessive gambling behavior. He additionally supervised the transfer of the National Lottery license from Camelot to Allwyn in 2024, marking the first operator change in the lottery’s 30-year history.
His departure comes as the industry faces higher taxes, ongoing reform implementation and continued debate over the effectiveness of affordability checks. Rhodes said in a farewell LinkedIn post that the role had often involved navigating “strongly competing and differing views” before announcing plans to move into a consulting role with a gambling-focused law firm.
