Prediction markets are being asked to temper their offerings after the National Football League (NFL) requested Kalshi, Polymarket and others to remove easily manipulable trades.
In letters sent Sunday, March 29, league officials called on companies to eliminate four categories of event contracts. They are types easily influenced by a single individual, such as missed field goals, outcomes known in advance, including draft selections, player signings and coaching changes, any wagers tied to officiating, and what the league described as “inherently objectionable” topics, like player injuries and fan safety.
Inside information causing anxiety among NFL leadership organization
Much of the concern around prediction markets in American Football stem from the parsing of confidential knowledge from within the organizations, according to executive vice president Jeff Miller. In an interview with ESPN, he said: “We’re trying to stay as far as we can from some of those sorts of inside information wagers that could exist in this space. We want to make sure that whatever is being done in this space, we can do our best to protect the integrity of the sport.”
While the requests mirror what the league asks of regulated sportsbooks, there are additional elements the league says need addressing, including trading activity on novelty markets tied to broadcast mentions and celebrity appearances, which are not available to be traded on.
The news comes off the back of an official partnership between Major League Baseball (MLB) and Polymarket, which was agreed earlier in the month. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred echoed similar sentiments to Miller when announcing the collaboration. He said at the time: “I hope that it goes without saying that our primary concern, always first in our minds, is protecting the integrity of the game. I think in today’s world, it is really important not to be chasing developments but to try to be involved and in front of those developments because our world is so fast moving.”
CFTC chair signals openness to partnership NFL
The newly appointed chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Michael Selig, is attempting to aggressively widen the scope of prediction markets, but acknowledges there is work to be done to ensure competition integrity in American Football.
In another interview with ESPN, he said: “If a league is telling us that a contract is going to be readily susceptible to manipulation and an exchange is still trying to certify that, of course we’ll evaluate the risks there. But the leagues are very well positioned to make those calls and so we are going to afford a lot of deference to the leagues on these types of issues.”
Earlier in the month, Kalshi confirmed it was “launching new technological guardrails that preemptively block politicians, athletes, and other relevant people from trading in certain politics and sports markets.”
Last week, Polymarket announced updated market integrity rules across both its DeFi platform and its CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange. In a statement, it said: “These rule enhancements make our expectations abundantly clear for every participant across both platforms and highlight the compliance infrastructure we have already built. As Polymarket continues to scale, we will build on our foundation with clear communication to Polymarket’s users to ensure our markets do what they do best, surface truth.”
Lawmakers continue onslaught on sector
Earlier in this month, U.S. lawmakers introduced legislation aimed at restricting certain prediction market bets, targeting contracts tied to war, terrorism and other sensitive government actions. The proposal, known as the BETS OFF Act, was introduced March 17 by Sen. Chris Murphy and Rep. Greg Casar.
Rather than eliminating prediction markets entirely, the bill focuses on areas lawmakers say are most vulnerable to insider knowledge or manipulation, particularly where outcomes can be influenced or known in advance.
The legislation would prohibit trading on government decisions, military operations and other events involving direct control or prior knowledge. It also targets contracts tied to entertainment or speech-related outcomes that lawmakers argue are especially easy to rig.
The push follows concerns over suspicious trades linked to military actions, with lawmakers warning such markets could enable insider profiteering and erode public trust in government decisions.
Elsewhere, U.S. Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis unveiled bipartisan legislation designed to bar federally regulated platforms from offering prediction contracts that mirror sports wagering or casino-style games.
Schiff has also put forward a separate proposal that would block any CFTC-regulated entity from listing such contracts altogether.
The pressure continues to intensify on the sector. From leagues, regulators and lawmakers alike, prediction market operators are facing growing pressure to refine what is permissible to be traded. For the NFL, any market compromising competitive integrity or inviting insider influence have little place alongside the sport.
Whether through voluntary changes by platforms or formal regulatory action, the coming months are likely to shape how prediction markets coexist with professional sports, and how far they are allowed to go.
