Despite the emerging threat of prediction markets, Las Vegas gaming executives remain upbeat about the future of gambling in the city, with 60% forecasting an increase in capital investment.
A survey by the American Gaming Association (AGA), the industry trade body, also found executives expect revenues to rise and balance sheets to strengthen over the next six to 12 months, with business confidence climbing to its highest level since the third quarter of 2022 and a net positive outlook of 21.4% across major indicators
Employment, gaming revenue, and wages on the rise, says AGA’s tracking tool .
The group’s Gaming Conditions Index, a benchmark tracking economic performance in the casino sector through metrics including gaming income, jobs, pay, executive confidence and hotel event activity, increased 1.5% compared with a year earlier.
In a statement, AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said : “The legal state and tribal-regulated gaming industry continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability in a dynamic economic environment,
“Operators are focused on investing in innovation and delivering world-class entertainment, while also navigating an evolving competitive and regulatory landscape.”
While confidence remains, the looming challenge of the federally related prediction markets industry is a growing blot on the future landscape of the US betting industry, the report finds. More than four-fifths of executives surveyed said prediction markets tied to sports event contracts pose a major threat to the regulated gambling sector.
Speaking strongly on the threat presented by the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket, Miller said: “Illegal sports betting through sports event contracts is increasingly encroaching on legal, state- and tribal-regulated operators,
“It’s clear the legal, regulated industry views this as a threat, and will continue to fight back and protect the integrity of our industry.”
The survey also noted that Nevada sportsbooks handled roughly $133.8 million in bets on Super Bowl 60, marking the state’s weakest Super Bowl wagering total in about 10 years, while traders on prediction market platform Kalshi
exchanged more than $1 billion in Super Bowl-related contracts, a figure the company said was up 2,700% from the previous year.
Nevada gaming revenue up 11% in March
Meanwhile, in related news, Nevada casinos reported $1.43 billion in gaming revenue in March, up 11.8% from the same month a year earlier, according to new figures released by the Nevada Gaming Control Board. Fiscal-year gaming revenue through March rose nearly 2% compared with the prior year.
The state collected $93 million in percentage fees in April based on March taxable revenue, a 17.2% increase from a year earlier. Clark County, home to the Las Vegas Strip, posted $1.25 billion in gaming win for the month, up 12.7%.
The Las Vegas Strip generated $780 million in gaming revenue in March, a 14.4% increase from a year ago, while downtown Las Vegas reported a 20.8% jump to $103.1 million.
Elsewhere in the state, Washoe County recorded $87.8 million in gaming revenue, up 7.3%, while Reno rose 7.5% to $62 million. South Lake Tahoe posted a nearly 20% increase, while Elko County was one of the few areas to decline, falling 4.8% year over year.
Las Vegas at forefront of legal battle against Kalshi
Back in February of this year, a Nevadan lawmaker introduced legislation to restrict the rapidly expanding prediction market sector.
Nevada Democratic Rep. Dina Titus introduced the Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act, which is aimed at banning financial trading tied to sports contests and casino-style event contracts. In a post shared on her X platform at the time, she wrote: “Prediction markets should not be able to circumvent state gaming laws. Consumers deserve transparency, accountability, and protection against such predatory practices.
“That is why I introduced the Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act to prevent entities from engaging in transactions involving sporting or casino-style event contracts.”
If implemented, the measure would revise the Commodity Exchange Act to bar regulated entities from participating in trades tied to sports outcomes or casino-like event contracts.
Elsewhere in the state, a judge on March 20 granted a temporary restraining order sought by the Nevada Gaming Control Board against prediction market platform Kalshi, barring the company from offering sports, election and entertainment event contracts in the state.
Judge Jason D. Woodbury ruled the contracts fit Nevada’s definitions of gambling activities, including a “sports pool” and “percentage game,” and therefore amounted to unlicensed gaming under state law.
The court rejected Kalshi’s argument that the Commodity Exchange Act gives exclusive authority over such contracts to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), finding that existing legal precedent favored Nevada’s position. The ruling followed earlier Nevada court orders against Coinbase and Polymarket, signaling a broader effort by the state to treat prediction market contracts as gambling activity subject to local regulation.
The legal fight has also drawn attention in Washington. Days after the ruling, Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtin introduced proposed legislation that would prohibit CFTC-regulated exchanges from listing contracts tied to sporting events or casino-style games, citing concerns over consumer protection and the rapid expansion of sports-related prediction markets.
