Fitch Ratings has downgraded SJM Holdings’ long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating to B+ from BB-, pointing to slower EBITDA growth and weaker Macau market share.
The ratings agency kept a stable outlook on the casino operator. The downgrade follows SJM’s first-quarter market share falling to 9.6%, below Fitch’s earlier 10.7% assumption for 2026.
Satellite casino closures hit share
Fitch linked the weaker market share to the closure of satellite casinos and slower-than-expected progress at Grand Lisboa Palace. The rating agency now expects SJM’s Macau market share to stay around 9.7% to 9.8% through 2028.
That is lower than Fitch previously expected. It means SJM may take longer to rebuild earnings and reduce leverage after the satellite casino model was phased out. The agency still expects some margin improvement after the end of lower-margin satellite operations. SJM is also expected to recapture part of that business through self-operated casinos, including the recently acquired L’Arc Casino.
Grand Lisboa Palace remains a concern
Grand Lisboa Palace remains central to SJM’s recovery plan, but Fitch noted weaker progress at the Cotai resort. Mass gaming volume growth slowed through 2025 and turned negative year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026.
Fitch expects the property’s market share to remain around the mid-2% level. The agency cited Macau competition and limits in the resort’s product offer as continuing pressure points.
SJM has been trying to improve performance at Grand Lisboa Palace while also managing debt and reshaping its casino network. The slower growth makes that task harder.
Leverage no longer fits old rating
The downgrade reflects Fitch’s view that SJM’s leverage path no longer matches the previous BB- rating level. The agency expects leverage metrics to stay outside its BB- threshold over the next two years.
Fitch forecasts adjusted EBITDA of HK$3.7 billion in 2026 and HK$4.2 billion in 2027. Those numbers still show recovery, but not enough to keep the former rating.
Fitch also noted that SJM has enough liquidity for near-term maturities. The group’s refinancing needs remain part of the rating picture as it works to reduce debt and improve cash flow from its Macau casinos.
