US prediction markets are expanding quickly, but gambling support has not grown at the same rate. Platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket now offer contracts on sports, elections, entertainment and economic events across much of the country.
Trading activity has risen sharply in recent months. Combined monthly volume on major prediction market platforms reached about $24 billion in April, up from less than $5 billion in September 2025.
Sports drives new activity
Sports contracts have become a major source of activity for prediction market platforms. Users can trade on game winners, player results and other outcomes in a format companies describe as event trading rather than betting.
This difference has helped the sector grow. Platforms argue they operate under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight, while state regulators and gambling groups argue that sports contracts are still a form of wagering.
The products are available in places where regulated sports betting is restricted or unavailable. State officials argue that prediction market operators can bypass local licensing, tax and player protection rules.
Help systems have gaps
Prediction markets can create risks for users who do not see the activity as gambling. Sports and event contracts can look like investment products because platforms use financial language.
The National Council on Problem Gambling has called for stronger consumer protections on prediction market platforms. Its recent polling found that many Americans view prediction markets as comparable to gambling, while others see them as investment products.
Gambling support systems are usually built around casinos, lotteries and sportsbooks. Prediction markets operate through a different federal framework and do not face the same responsible gambling rules used in many state betting markets.
Federal rules are still being written
The CFTC is working on rules for event contracts involving sports and other sensitive activities. The regulator opened a public consultation in June on proposed changes to its event contract rules. The rules could decide what contracts exchanges can offer. They could also set requirements for how platforms watch trading activity.
The changes may help define when a product is treated as a financial contract and when it is treated as gambling. State gambling regulators are still challenging sports prediction markets in courts and through enforcement actions.
Calls grow for treatment funding
Public health advocates are pressing Congress to create federal funding for gambling addiction prevention and treatment. The proposed GRIT Act would direct money from federal sports betting taxes toward research, education and treatment programs. Prediction market growth has added urgency to that debate. Support groups are calling for clearer safeguards, better data and easier access to help for people harmed by gambling-like activity.
