The prediction market company Kalshi is poised for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) after another bumper year of growth, with reports suggesting a potential late-year 2027 date for a public listing.
Reporting from American business publication The Information suggests discussions remain at an early stage, with talks between Kalshi and investment banks described as informal and preliminary. Some sources are less bullish on a 2027 IPO, indicating a potential timeline stretching into 2028.
Sports fuels Kalshi revenue annualizing over $2 billion
Kalshi’s rapid growth has strengthened its position ahead of this potential public offering. The prediction market operator generated more than $2 billion in annualized revenue by mid-June, according to The Information, up from a $1 billion run rate in March and roughly triple its reported level in November. The increase was driven in part by heavy trading on contracts tied to the NBA playoffs and the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Trading activity has climbed alongside revenue. Kalshi reported monthly trading volume of $16.8 billion in May, compared with $14.8 billion in April. The company said annualized trading volume rose from $52 billion to $178 billion over the previous six months, underscoring the growing popularity of prediction markets that allow users to trade on the outcomes of sports, political and economic events.
Investors have taken notice. Kalshi announced a $1 billion funding round in May that valued the company at $22 billion, double its valuation five months earlier. The round drew support from major investors including Andreessen Horowitz, Morgan Stanley and ARK Invest, as analysts at Bernstein project the industry could grow from about $51 billion in annual volume last year to as much as $1 trillion by 2030.
More than $5 billion has been traded on 2026 FIFA World Cup contracts across prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, according to a Bloomberg analysis of company data and Dune Analytics. The surge has produced both multimillion-dollar gains and steep losses, including one trader’s nearly $9 million loss on a failed Belgium-Egypt wager, highlighting the growing appeal and risks of prediction markets as they expand beyond politics and economic events into mainstream sports.
Economic purpose of sports event contracts questioned by ex-CFTC commissioner
Despite the drive towards sports event contracts and trading, warnings persist among ex-agency officials who warn about the utility of sports event contracts.
A former commissioner of the CFTC has raised doubts about whether sports event contracts meet the legal standards required to trade on federally regulated exchanges.
Dan Berkovitz questioned whether contracts tied to sporting events serve a legitimate economic purpose, a key requirement under the Commodity Exchange Act. He argued that regulators must consider whether such products provide a genuine financial or hedging function rather than simply facilitating speculation.
The comments are notable because Berkovitz served on the CFTC when the agency granted Kalshi its designation as a regulated exchange, allowing the company to offer event-based contracts under federal oversight.
The debate comes as the CFTC faces growing scrutiny over prediction markets linked to sports and other events. President Donald Trump has backed the agency’s authority over the sector and expressed support for the continued expansion of sports event contracts.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued by CME Group over perpetual futures
Elsewhere, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) sued the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Chairman Michael Selig on Thursday, seeking to overturn the regulator’s approval of perpetual futures contracts offered by Kalshi and Coinbase. CME argued the products should be classified as swaps under Dodd-Frank rules and said the agency acted unlawfully by allowing them to trade as futures.
The lawsuit challenges the CFTC’s May 29 approval of Kalshi’s bitcoin perpetual futures contract and a related policy allowing other exchanges to offer similar products. The CFTC dismissed the case as “frivolous,” while Kalshi and Coinbase said the challenge reflects concerns about increased competition from newer market entrants.
Perpetual futures, which have no expiration date and are widely used in cryptocurrency markets, generated $61.7 trillion in trading volume globally last year, according to CryptoQuant. The dispute adds to a growing list of legal battles involving the CFTC under Selig, who currently serves as the agency’s sole commissioner, including ongoing fights with states over prediction markets.
