Kalshi is trying to reverse Brazil’s block on prediction markets through talks with regulators rather than a court fight. The company wants Brazilian authorities to reconsider an April decision that blocked access to prediction market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket.
Brazil acted after tightening rules on products that look like betting but are presented as financial contracts. The decision left prediction markets outside Brazil’s regulated betting system while the country builds one of Latin America’s largest legal gambling markets.
Brazil blocked 27 prediction platforms
Brazil blocked 27 prediction market platforms in April after a National Monetary Council resolution restricted event-linked derivatives. The rules prohibit contracts tied to sports events, online games, politics, elections, cultural events and entertainment outcomes.
The government asked telecommunications regulator Anatel to block access to the platforms. The measure targeted sites that allowed users to trade on real-world events without holding a Brazilian betting licence.
Officials also limited acceptable derivatives to products linked to economic indicators, such as interest rates, inflation or exchange rates. That reduced room for event contracts tied to sport, politics or pop culture.
Kalshi wants regulatory dialogue
Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara has pushed for engagement with Brazilian authorities. Her argument is that the block came from limited understanding of prediction markets.
Kalshi is not seeking a legal challenge in Brazil at this stage. The company is instead trying to explain its model and separate prediction markets from unlicensed betting.
That difference is central to Kalshi’s global strategy. The platform presents event contracts as regulated financial products in the US, while gambling regulators in several markets argue that many contracts look like betting.
Betting market context raises pressure
Brazil launched its regulated betting market in 2025, creating a licensing system for fixed-odds betting operators. Licensed companies face local tax, compliance, advertising and responsible gambling rules.
Prediction markets create concern because they can offer event-based products outside that structure. Sports and entertainment contracts are especially sensitive because they can compete directly with betting operators.
Brazilian betting companies had already pressed the Treasury to act against prediction market platforms. They argue that platforms offering event outcomes should not avoid the rules applied to licensed betting brands.
Brazil joins wider classification debate
Brazil is now part of a wider dispute over how prediction markets should be classified. The same issue is being tested in the US, Europe and Latin America as platforms expand beyond politics and finance into sport and entertainment.
Brazil’s April resolution also affects exchanges and intermediaries that offer derivatives locally. That means any future change for prediction markets may need to address both gambling law and financial-market rules before access can return.
