A planned prediction market conference in Las Vegas has been canceled by the casino Aria, the prospective venue for the meet, after concerns were raised about ramifications to its licence in Las Vegas.
A legal notice, reviewed by premier financial magazine and website Barron’s, shows Aria rejecting the opportunity to host Predict 2026, which would have been held on the Las Vegas strip.
Nevada and prediction markets remain locked in horns
In a letter terminating the contract between the hotel and conference organizers, a lawyer stated: “The [Aria] is issuing this notice in light of Nevada’s current regulatory and enforcement position regarding prediction markets.”
The Nevada Gaming Control Board, the agency responsible for overseeing the state’s gambling industry and licensing framework, has adopted a firm position on prediction markets. In guidance published in October 2025, the regulator cautioned licensed operators that partnering with a prediction market platform or creating one themselves could raise regulatory concerns.
They stated: “the Board will consider these developments as it evaluates the suitability of the entity to maintain a Nevada gaming license.”
The animosity between Nevada’s gambling industry and the exploding prediction market sector is so much that even tenuous links could lead to a licence suspension, according to the legal notice. It states: ““Recently, the Board has even expressed concern about advertising of prediction markets at non-gaming venues owned by affiliates of the hotel.”
Aria Resort & Casino, which opened on the Las Vegas Strip in 2009, was developed by MGM Resorts International. The property was sold to private equity firm Blackstone Inc. in 2021, though MGM continues to operate the resort.
Prediction market Kalshi temporarily banned from state
Last month, a Nevada judge temporarily barred prediction market operator Kalshi from offering event contracts in the state, siding with regulators who argue the platform enables unlicensed gambling on sports, elections and entertainment outcomes.
Carson City District Court Judge Jason Woodbury granted a temporary restraining order requested by the Nevada Gaming Control Board, preventing Kalshi from operating in Nevada without a license. The ruling marks the latest development in a broader national dispute over whether prediction markets fall under state gambling laws or federal commodities regulation.
Nevada regulators sued Kalshi back in March, arguing the company’s sports and event contracts qualify as wagering activity under state law.
Kalshi contended the contracts fall exclusively under the authority of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which has supported prediction markets in similar disputes. Woodbury rejected that argument, stating the state retains enforcement authority and describing Kalshi’s offerings as a “sports pool” under Nevada gaming law.
Prediction markets and sports betting “two different things” says CFTC chair
The acting chair of the CFTC said prediction markets should be regulated as financial products rather than gambling platforms, as federally regulated exchanges such as Kalshi and Polymarket gain popularity. Much of the recent growth in trading volume has been tied to sports-related contracts.
In an interview with Axios, CFTC Chair Michael Selig said prediction markets and sportsbooks operate under fundamentally different models. He described casinos and sportsbooks as entertainment businesses, while portraying prediction markets as financial exchanges governed by market rules and oversight.
Selig said traditional sportsbooks can restrict or remove successful bettors, while derivatives markets allow traders to continue participating regardless of winnings. “You keep winning? Great. You take your earnings,” Selig said, arguing that prediction markets offer greater market “discipline and integrity” than conventional betting operators.
Lawmakers have raised concerns about insider trading on prediction markets, prompting several congressional proposals aimed at restricting trades based on nonpublic information. Selig said the CFTC’s prohibitions on insider trading in derivatives markets are “nearly identical” to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s rules governing insider trading in securities markets.
