Prediction markets in Japan are beginning to take off thanks to an innovative loyalty points scheme that helps companies navigate the complex gambling laws in the country.
Companies including Miraima, Poyp and Gumi Inc. reward users with digital points rather than cash payouts, aligning with Japan’s long-standing consumer loyalty programs.
Miraima, which launched in November, has grown to nearly 1 million monthly users. Its rapid expansion has been driven by interest in sports and political events, as well as Japan’s widespread use of digital rewards ecosystems such as PayPay and Rakuten.
Gift cards and retail loyalty rewards instead of cash
Japan’s gambling laws generally prohibit wagering on games of chance unless specifically authorized by law. Legal gambling is largely limited to government-regulated activities such as horse racing, bicycle racing, boat racing, motorcycle racing and lotteries, while casinos remain tightly controlled under the country’s integrated resort framework. Because betting money on uncertain events is broadly prohibited, companies have sought alternative models that avoid direct cash wagering.
Point-based prediction market platforms have emerged as one such approach. Instead of allowing users to stake money, services award virtual points through activities such as registering for an account, watching advertisements or completing in-app tasks. Those points can then be used to predict the outcomes of sports, political events or financial markets, with successful users earning additional points that may later be exchanged for gift cards or loyalty rewards. Operators argue the system differs from conventional gambling because participants are not risking assets with direct monetary value.
The model resembles Japan’s long-standing pachinko industry, which has historically operated by awarding prizes that can be indirectly converted into cash through separate businesses rather than paying winners directly. Even so, legal experts say point-based prediction markets could still face regulatory scrutiny because the rewards ultimately carry economic value. As the platforms grow in popularity, regulators may be forced to determine whether the systems comply with existing gambling laws or require new oversight.
Japan authorities warn against casino impersonation scams
Meanwhile, MGM Osaka has warned consumers about fraudulent websites impersonating its future integrated resort and falsely claiming that online casino gambling has been legalized in Japan. The company said the unauthorized sites have no connection to MGM Osaka and are illegally using its name and branding to promote gambling services.
The operator said its only official website is mgmosaka.co.jp and reminded the public that online casino gambling remains illegal in Japan. It also noted that advertising or promoting online casinos is a criminal offense, urging anyone who encounters suspicious activity or falls victim to fraud to report it to local police.
Many of the fake websites are believed to be offshore operators licensed in overseas jurisdictions that target Japanese players through social media and digital advertising. Although such platforms often claim legitimacy under foreign licenses, Japanese authorities consider participation in offshore online gambling illegal and have stepped up enforcement ahead of tougher anti-online gambling measures due to take effect in September 2026.
MGM Osaka, a joint venture between MGM Resorts International and Orix Corporation, is developing Japan’s first approved integrated resort on Yumeshima Island. Scheduled to open in 2030, the ¥1.27 trillion ($7.85 billion) development will feature hotels, convention facilities, retail space and entertainment venues, alongside a casino with more than 6,000 slot machines and nearly 500 table games. Japan’s 2018 integrated resort law permits up to three casino resorts, with MGM Osaka expected to be the first to open.
Japan continues to struggle with surge of illegal gambling
Earlier in the year, Japanese authorities admitted they were considering website blocking as a last-resort measure to combat illegal online gambling after enforcement activity reached record levels in 2025. The proposal is being reviewed by the Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry, although officials have raised concerns it could conflict with constitutional protections covering the secrecy of communications.
The ministry said any website-blocking system would need to be proven necessary, effective and socially beneficial before being adopted. Officials also point out that internet service providers would need to monitor user access, making the measure more intrusive than existing enforcement tools.
The debate follows new figures from the National Police Agency showing action was taken against a record 317 people in 2025, including 221 linked to online casino cases. Despite Japan’s ban on online gambling, authorities estimate about 2 million people gamble on offshore sites each year, wagering around ¥1.24 trillion annually.
Website blocking is currently used only to restrict access to child sexual abuse material. Constitutional law professor Joji Shishido said it should remain a “final button” in the government’s efforts, while officials said recent laws targeting unlicensed operators and gambling promotions have shown some success but may not be sufficient to curb illegal gambling.
