Polymarket’s upward trajectory is continuing at pace thanks to a bumper few months of sporting action and increased expansion across the US, despite facing increasing opposition from lawmakers across the country.
A source familiar with the matter confirmed the milestone was reached last week, just six weeks after launching its U.S. exchange. The NBA finals and the World Cup, two of the year’s biggest sporting events, have also helped boost coffers.
Polymarket face investigation from regulators
It’s not all been good news for Polymarket, however. In recent weeks, the prediction market has been subject to a thorough investigation from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating the operator, according to reports from The Wall Street Journal and CNBC, despite the agency not publicly confirming the inquiry. If pursued, the case would mark the first major enforcement action involving a prediction market under Chairman Michael Selig, who has broadly supported the expansion of federally regulated event contracts.
The case surrounds college-age social media influencers and how they promoted Polymarket through videos showing fabricated betting wins. In a letter sent Thursday, Sens. John Curtis of Utah and Adam Schiff of California urged Selig to examine the allegations, warning they raise broader concerns about whether the agency has the tools to oversee platforms that increasingly resemble gambling products. “The public-facing behavior alleged here does not resemble a sober financial market designed for hedging or price discovery,” the senators wrote.
The reported probe comes less than a year after the CFTC and the Justice Department ended a previous investigation into whether Polymarket violated a 2022 settlement that barred U.S. users from accessing the platform. That investigation, launched during the Biden administration, concluded without charges in July 2025. Polymarket later resumed operations in the United States after receiving regulatory approval.
Separately, a consumer advocacy organization filed a lawsuit Friday against Polymarket, Chief Executive Officer Shayne Coplan and Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber, alleging the company used deceptive marketing tactics to target college students. A CFTC spokesperson declined to comment on the reported investigation, while Polymarket did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The company has faced heightened regulatory scrutiny since its rapid rise during the 2024 U.S. election cycle, when prediction markets gained mainstream attention after correctly signaling Donald Trump’s victory. The Trump administration has since backed federal oversight of prediction markets, even as lawmakers and regulators continue to debate concerns over insider trading, market manipulation and whether the contracts function more like financial instruments or gambling products.
Polymarket could become takeover target, broker suggests
Meanwhile, prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket could become acquisition targets as consolidation accelerates across the sector, according to analysts at Bernstein. The firm said growing overlap between prediction markets, sports betting and consumer finance is likely to drive a wave of mergers and acquisitions.
In a note to clients, Bernstein analysts led by Ian Moore said Kalshi and Polymarket “own the stack but trail on distribution,” making both plausible takeover candidates. The analysts pointed to companies including DraftKings, Robinhood and Coinbase as potential buyers seeking to expand their market positions.
Bernstein said prediction markets have rapidly entered the mainstream, with major platforms increasingly owning their own exchange infrastructure rather than relying on third parties. Coinbase has reached about $100 million in annualized prediction market revenue, while Robinhood has traded more than $16 billion in event contracts this year.
Kalshi, recently valued at $40 billion, has announced plans for an IPO in late 2026 or early 2027, while Polymarket, valued at $15 billion, is also expected to pursue a public listing. Bernstein said consolidation remains likely as companies seek greater scale, lower promotional costs and operational efficiencies.
Mark Zuckerberg urges new prediction market platform to work with Polymarket and Kalshi
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has directed executives to explore partnerships with prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi as the company develops its own prediction app, Arena, according to employees familiar with the project. The app, which is being tested internally, would use virtual points rather than real-money wagers and is aimed at users aged 18 to 34, with a goal of reaching 100 million monthly active users.
Arena is designed to let users predict outcomes across sports, politics, entertainment, finance and culture while competing with friends and family. Meta executives have described prediction markets as an emerging content format that encourages conversation and social engagement. The company is also considering integrating prediction features into Facebook, Messenger, Reels and Stories if the standalone app proves successful.
Meta, Polymarket and Kalshi declined to comment. Any partnership discussions remain exploratory, and it is unclear whether Arena will eventually support real-money betting. Internally, some employees have raised ethical concerns about bringing prediction markets to Meta’s platforms, while others argue the use of virtual points distinguishes the product from gambling.
The initiative comes as prediction markets face growing regulatory scrutiny. Critics, including Sen. Richard Blumenthal, have warned that expanding prediction products could fuel gambling-related harms, while Democratic lawmakers have urged Congress to preserve state oversight of the industry.
