The prediction market industry got a significant boost on Tuesday with a strong endorsement of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) from President Donald Trump in a social media post.
Attacking officials who are pursuing legal action against the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket in states such as New York, Nevada, and Tennessee, Trump said: “It is critically important that the CFTC’s exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive.”
CFTC chairman Mike Selig “doing a great job”, Trump claims
In pointed remarks, Trump criticized state officials for attempting to interfere in what the CFTC claims is its exclusive federal authority over prediction markets.
“Under my leadership, we are setting “rules of the road” that are the Gold Standard for the States. We cannot have SCUM like Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker setting the rules! Other Countries are after this new form of Financial Market, and we want to remain at the top.”
Former New Jersey Governor Christie has emerged as a leading Republican critic of prediction markets, frequently making the case that sports-event contracts offered by companies such as Kalshi sidestep state gambling laws and threaten the integrity of regulated sports betting. Christie, now advising gaming trade groups, has backed efforts to tighten oversight and praised restrictions on prediction-market advertising during major sporting events.
In New York, Attorney General James has warned that prediction markets may violate state gambling statutes, joined a bipartisan coalition defending state gaming authority, and filed lawsuits targeting platforms that allegedly offer unlicensed sports-style betting products.
Minnesota Governor Walz signed the nation’s first state law banning many prediction-market contracts, including wagers tied to sports, elections and disasters, framing the industry as addictive and insufficiently regulated.
Meanwhile, Illinois Governor Pritzker issued an executive order barring state employees from using insider information to trade on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, claiming that unchecked prediction markets create ethical and public-trust risks. Together, the four Democrats and Republicans represent a widening bipartisan push by states to reassert authority over the rapidly expanding prediction-market industry.
Pritzker hits back, continuing corruption attack line on Trump and prediction market industry
Democrats are increasingly framing President Trump’s ties to crypto and prediction markets as a modern corruption issue, arguing the overlap between government power, digital assets and speculative trading creates opportunities for insider influence and self-enrichment.
Critics have pointed to Trump-linked crypto ventures and concerns that politically connected traders could profit from sensitive government decisions. Democrats say the issue resonates because it combines public distrust of Washington with fears that lightly regulated crypto and event-betting markets are becoming vehicles for influence peddling and insider trading.
Responding to Trump’s post on X, Pritzker hit back: “Illinois took action to prevent and ban insider trading with online prediction markets in our state. The most corrupt President in our nation’s history wants to make sure states like ours can’t regulate prediction markets so his family and administration can keep profiting.”
Trump’s family has emerged as closely tied to the industry, with his son Donald Trump Jr. serving as an adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi. Both firms are privately held and do not trade on public stock exchanges.
Australia bans Polymarket and Kalshi
Meanwhile, Australian regulators have moved to block major US-based prediction markets as concerns grow over gambling, insider trading and markets tied to war and human suffering. The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) has already banned Polymarket from operating locally, while the corporate regulator Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) warned that prediction markets are “high-risk and speculative” and said no operator currently holds an Australian market licence.
The move comes despite efforts from former Liberal lawmaker Jason Falinski, who is pushing to legalize the sector, arguing existing geo-blocking restrictions are ineffective.
In a statement, the Australian regulator confirmed it had not opened any cases against any company: “[ACMA] continues to monitor prediction market services more broadly [and] it has not undertaken formal investigations into other prediction market operators at this time”.
ASIC released a statement, adding: “”Bets placed on prediction markets are high-risk and speculative and pose a significant risk to retail investors. No prediction market providers currently hold an Australian market licence.
“ASIC continues to observe the rise of prediction markets in the United States and is considering how local financial services laws may apply.”
Australia is among 30 countries to have barred the sector from operating within its border, with Spain and Indonesia recently adding their names to the banned list.
