The World Cup, which gets underway on June 11th, is likely to attract more than $10 billion in trades on prediction market platforms throughout the tournament, a Wall Street brokerage firm has predicted.
Bernstein, a premier global equity research and brokerage firm, is suggesting the event is a “watershed” moment for the prediction market sector, which has been exploding in popularity over the past 12 months.
Prediction market volume to reach $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein predicts
The prediction market sector has been turbo charging in one direction over the last few months and yesterday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed new regulations to provide oversight of the industry. Recently, analysts at Bernstein predicted the industry will grow to $1 trillion in annual volume by the end of the decade, up from an estimated $240 billion this year.
That forecast comes amidst what could be a defining moment for the prediction market industry, according to analysts at Bernstein, who say the tournament is the largest volume-driving event the sector has faced.
Prediction markets, which allow users to trade contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events, gained prominence during the 2024 U.S. presidential election and have since expanded into sports and other categories.
Bernstein said the expanded 48-team World Cup will feature 104 matches, around 60% more than previous tournaments, creating a major opportunity for trading activity during a typically slow period for sports betting.
The firm estimates the tournament could generate more than $3 billion in additional wagering handle and between $5 billion and $10 billion in trading volume across prediction market platforms.
DraftKings likely to benefit most from surge in prediction market spend
Bernstein identified DraftKings as one of the biggest potential beneficiaries of the World Cup, arguing the company is uniquely positioned to convert tournament interest into long-term growth through its prediction markets business.
Unlike traditional sportsbooks, DraftKings’ Predictions product can legally operate in large states such as California, Texas and Florida, giving the company access to millions of consumers who cannot place online sports bets. Those states are also home to a large share of the U.S. Hispanic population, a key audience for soccer and World Cup wagering.
Analysts estimate the tournament could add about 650,000 funded Predictions accounts, helping DraftKings approach two million users by the end of 2026. The firm believes prediction markets can expand the overall audience for sports-related trading rather than simply cannibalize sportsbook activity.
Bernstein also pointed to DraftKings’ partnership with Telemundo and its Spanish-language product offerings as competitive advantages. With Hispanic consumers historically underrepresented among online sportsbook users, the World Cup presents a rare opportunity for customer acquisition at scale, particularly in markets where conventional sports betting remains unavailable.
Volume for World Cup winner market over $120 million
Trading on World Cup prediction markets has surged since the tournament began, with Kalshi users exchanging roughly 123 million contracts tied to the eventual champion.
While prediction market operators often cite total contract volume as a measure of activity, the figure can overstate the amount of money actually at risk. Because many contracts trade at fractions of a cent, large volumes can be generated with relatively small cash commitments.
The market has attracted significant interest in long-shot teams. Haiti ranked among the most actively traded countries despite being viewed as an extreme outsider, drawing more contract activity than Brazil. However, the total amount wagered on Haiti remained a fraction of the money backing traditional contenders.
Portugal, Mexico, France, the United States and the Netherlands were among the most heavily traded teams by contract volume as betting and trading activity intensified during the tournament’s opening days.
